HOT: -20% QUANTITY BUT SAVES THE QUALITY ITALIAN EXTRA VIRGIN OLIVE OIL.

The high temperatures recorded in recent months are significantly accelerating the ripening of olives, which could be ready for harvesting and pressing as early as mid-September. This is a clear sign of how climate change is altering the traditional rhythms of Italian olive growing. However, this change has not yet been accompanied by an adjustment to the regulations regarding the start of the olive oil season, which is still set for October 1st. We hope that the institutions will acknowledge this situation and adapt the regulations to the new climate conditions so as not to create problems and missed opportunities for the entire Italian olive oil supply chain. This is the hope of Tullio Forcella, President of FEDEROLIO, the association that represents the Italian olive oil trade.

"If we want to make quantitative forecasts, we know that 2026/2027 will be a slow season, but, with an expected production estimate of approximately 20% lower than last year, the next campaign can still be considered positive. Sicily, lower Calabria, and Puglia should remain at this physiological reduction, while Campania and upper Calabria show more favorable prospects. As for quality, current agronomic conditions allow us to predict a very good campaign," continued Tullio Forcella, President of FEDEROLIO, the association that most represents the Italian olive oil trade.

"These estimates fit perfectly within the framework of national production over the last six years, as reported by the IOC (International Olive Council): 274,000 tonnes in 2020/2021 , 329,000 in 2021/2022, 241,000 in 2022/2023 , 328,000 in 2023/2024 , 248,000 in 2024/2025, and 325,000 in 2025/2026. This sequence confirms the physiological alternation of production and the full consistency of current estimates with the dynamics of the sector," concluded Tullio Forcella, President of FEDEROLIO, the association most representative of the Italian olive oil trade.