Wine Report of October 30, 2025

Major updates

• Italian exports show mixed signals: in the first six months of 2025, Italy recorded an increase in value (1.5% to ≈ €2.8 billion) and in volume (2.1% to ≈ 703.5 million litres).
• On the US market, however, a dramatic decline is evident: in the months of July-August 2025, Italian wine exports to the USA fell by -28% in value compared to the same period in 2024.
• Harvest production in Italy is estimated at around 47.4 million hl for 2025, an increase compared to 2024.
• Grape prices in some regions are reaching new levels: for example, in Umbria, Sangiovese 2025 is valued between €26-30/quintal; Merlot/Cabernet between €28-30/quintal; and Sagrantino DOCG prices reach €100-140/quintal.
• The bulk wine market shows a certain balance: in Italy and globally, the value is substantially stable thanks to the increase in the average price (2.1% to €0.78/litre) despite a slight drop in volumes.
• M&A activity in the wine sector is slowing significantly: deals announced for 2025 remain marginal, and most operators are waiting for clearer terms. Innovation and sustainability remain crucial drivers: a recent study highlights how AI and sensors applied to vineyards, production, and wine tourism are becoming key drivers of competitive advantage.

M&A Radar

• Known deal: Castel-Vins (French group) acquires 100% of Tannico (Italian online wine and spirits platform, previously owned by Campari Group and Moët Hennessy) – announcement October 20, 2025.
  • Geography: Italy → France / digital wine distribution
  • Size: Not publicly disclosed
  • Note: This signals that digital distribution and the logistics platform are strategic targets, even more so than pure production assets.

Prices & Harvest – Mini Box

Harvest 2025

• National estimate Italy: ~47.4 million hl (8% vs 2024)
• Tuscany Region: 2025 production forecast of ~2.4 million hl, down from ~2.7 million hl in 2024 (quality production choice)
• Grape conditions: “extraordinary concentration and health” reported for some varieties in Italy.

Grape prices (some regions/varieties – Italy, updated to October 2025)

• Umbria: Sangiovese ~€26-30/100 kg; Merlot/Cabernet ~€28-30/100 kg.
• Umbria: Sagrantino DOCG ~€100-140/quintal.
• White Umbria: Trebbiano ~€22-26/100 kg; Grechetto ~€30-35/100 kg.
• Bulk wine average value in Italy: €0.78 per litre (~2.1% vs. previous period)

Trends & operational notes

• Despite good production, a surplus is looming in some areas – there is a risk of margin erosion if quality and differentiation are not addressed.
• In the bulk segment, oversupply is pushing for consolidation and the search for efficiency.
• For exports, the contraction towards the USA signals the urgent need to diversify markets and strengthen direct channels/premium brands.