Wineries are approaching harvest time with 42.6 million hectolitres of wine still in stock , exports are slowing, bulk prices are under pressure and some of the main international markets are showing signs of weakness.
At the same time, however, areas capable of generating value are emerging: Classic Method, Prosecco in large-scale retail trade, producer brands, wine tourism, cellar catering, new markets and corporate mergers .
The message for the sector is therefore increasingly clear: the future will not be determined only by the quantity produced, but by the ability of companies to sell better, build margins, strengthen the brand, diversify revenues and have a size and organisation appropriate to the market .
1. STOCKS: 42.6 MILLION HECTOLITERS BEFORE THE NEW HARVEST
At the end of July, 42.6 million hectolitres of wine were stored in Italian cellars.
Compared to June, inventories decreased by 8.6%, a normal trend in the pre-harvest phase. The most significant figure, however, emerges from the year-on-year comparison: compared to July 31, 2025, inventories are 6.9% higher , with over 2.7 million hectoliters added.
PDO and PGI represent over 80% of the stocks: approximately 23.5 million hectolitres of PDO and 11 million of PGI .
Veneto alone accounts for about a quarter of Italian wine in storage, with over 10.2 million hectoliters, followed by Tuscany, Puglia, Emilia-Romagna, and Piedmont.
Among the denominations, Prosecco has the largest stocks, with approximately 3.24 million hectolitres.
The point is therefore not simply how much wine will be produced in 2026. The central question is how much product the market will be able to absorb while guaranteeing adequate profitability for the supply chain .
2. 2026 HARVEST: THE RISK IS PRODUCING MORE THAN THE MARKET CAN ABSORB
Italian production in 2026 is estimated at around 40 million hectolitres , a level that could keep Italy at the top of the world in terms of quantity.
At this time, however, being the first producer does not necessarily represent an advantage.
High inventories are meeting a slower market and are increasing pressure on prices.
In June, the average prices of DOC wines fell by 7%, while for common wines the drop reached 19%.
Tensions are also rising over grape prices in some production areas. In Valpolicella, fresh grape prices are reported to be lower than producers' expectations, while in Piedmont, Moscato, Dolcetto, and Barbera d'Asti are being closely monitored.
With high production costs and agricultural prices under pressure, in some situations the loss of profitability per hectare can become significant.
The 2026 harvest therefore raises a fundamental question: does it still make sense to measure the strength of Italian wine primarily by the hectoliters produced?
More and more likely, no.
3. ITALIAN EXPORTS: UNDER €3 BILLION IN THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS
In the first five months of 2026, Italian wine exports stood at approximately 2.98 billion euros , a 6.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2025.
Volumes decrease by more than 5%.
The bottled wine segment is particularly difficult, losing 9.6% in value between January and May.
Sparkling wines are showing greater staying power: the overall value remains substantially stable at around 876 million euros.
Within the category, however, performances are mixed. Prosecco DOP declined by 2.2%, while Asti grew by 35%, and other DOP sparkling wine categories, both varietal and common, maintained positive figures.
The difficulty concerns both EU and non-EU markets.
The United States , the largest market for Italian wine, saw a 15.5% decline in value in the first five months. Germany and the United Kingdom also recorded negative figures.
However, some markets are emerging that go against the trend: China 18%, Brazil 15.2%, Russia 17.5% , while Canada remains substantially stable.
The geography of exports must therefore be rethought. Excessive dependence on a few mature markets is becoming a risk.
4. CHINA: LESS EUROPEAN WINE, BUT IT DOESN'T MEAN ABANDONING THE MARKET
China continues to be one of the most complex markets.
In the first six months of 2026, Chinese imports of bottled wine from the European Union decreased by 16.6% in volume and 7.9% in value .
For Italy, the indicated decrease reaches 17.7%.
Daily wine consumption continues to be less deeply rooted in the Chinese market, and even the segment of fine collectible wines has lost some of the momentum of past years.
This very situation, however, is generating an interesting secondary market: large collections accumulated in previous years are becoming available again, creating opportunities for European operators and collectors.
At the same time, Hong Kong continues to represent an important platform for Asian fine wine and could offer space for great mature and collectible Italian wines.
China, therefore, should not simply be classified as a growth or crisis market: it requires much more selective strategies in terms of product, price range and distribution channel .
5. UNITED STATES: LESS ALCOHOL, BUT WINE RETAINS ITS AUDIENCE
In the United States, only 54% of adults report drinking alcohol , the lowest level Gallup has recorded since 1939.
In 2023, the percentage was still 62%.
At the same time, there is growing attention to health and moderation.
However, another interesting fact for the wine sector is: among those who consume alcohol, the preference for wine remains around 30% , substantially stable compared to previous years.
Wine also maintains a particularly strong position among consumers over 55 and among women.
At the same time, the no/low alcohol phenomenon is growing.
The American market is therefore not simply abandoning wine: it is changing the occasions, frequency and methods of consumption .
6. Large-scale retail trade: wine prices are falling, bubbles are rising
In the Italian large-scale retail trade, the overall wine market recorded, in the twelve months ending in July 2026, sales of 414 million litres , down 3.4%, and a value of approximately 1.8 billion euros , down 1.2%.
Within this scenario, however, the strength of the bubbles clearly emerges.
Sparkling wines grew by 1% in volume and 1.2% in value.
Prosecco reaches around 40 million litres, growing by 3.8%, while the most significant data concerns the Italian Classic Method , which records:
7.6% in volume and 6.2% in value.
Franciacorta, Trentodoc, and other Metodo Classico wines are therefore capturing a demand that is more oriented toward quality and value.
The growth of bag-in-box is also interesting, 1.3% in volume and 4.7% in value.
Private labels, on the other hand, are in sharp decline: -5.4% in volume and -5% in value .
This is an important signal.
In a phase in which the consumer buys less wine, the producer, the brand, the territory and the recognition once again have greater weight in the purchasing decision .
7. SPARKLING WINES: A CATEGORY IN SEARCH OF A NEW IDENTITY
Sparkling wine is in a more complex situation.
For years it has represented the meeting point between still and sparkling wine: informal, accessible and suitable for everyday consumption.
Today this space is increasingly occupied by competitive Charmat sparkling wines.
In the first quarter of 2026, exports of Italian sparkling wines recorded a 12.5% decrease in value , accompanied by a reduction in average prices.
Germany and the United States continue to generate around 40% of the value of exports, but Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are growing.
A new commercial geography is therefore taking shape, more concentrated on continental and Eastern Europe.
For sparkling wines, the challenge will not only be to recover volumes, but to redefine positioning, identity and consumption occasions .
8. BULK WINE: THE GLOBAL MARKET SLOWS DOWN
The slowdown doesn't just concern packaged wine.
In the first quarter of 2026, world bulk wine exports decreased by 18.8% in value , stopping at 566 million euros, and by 18.9% in volume , to 7.1 million hectolitres.
Italy remains among the world's leading operators, but in the twelve months ending in March it recorded a contraction of 11.3% in value and 13.3% in volume.
This phenomenon confirms that the reduction in demand is not affecting a single segment of the market: it is affecting a significant part of the international supply chain.
9. WINE TOURISM: FROM TASTING TO EXPERIENCE
As the traditional market slows, the importance of the direct relationship between winery and consumer grows.
Tuscany offers an interesting indication.
September accounts for 16.3% of annual visits to Tuscan wineries , compared to a national average of 14.8%.
In 2025, the average value of a wine tourism booking in Tuscany reached 153 euros , compared to 117 euros in 2023: approximately 31% more in two years.
The average spending per visitor rose from 39 to 45 euros.
The audience is strongly international: only 36% of visitors are Italian and over 70% of the experiences are also offered in English.
Consumers no longer seek just a tasting. They seek territory, story, vineyard, harvest, gastronomy, culture, and a direct relationship with the winemaker .
10. CELLAR RESTAURANT: WINE BECOMES A DESTINATION
The growth of wine tourism is leading many companies to invest directly in catering.
Restaurants, hospitality, resorts, events, and gastronomic experiences are no longer simply complementary services.
For some companies, they are becoming real business lines capable of increasing the margins of direct sales, strengthening the brand and transforming the winery into a destination .
The economic model of the winery therefore tends to expand:
wine direct sales hospitality catering territory experience.
It is probably one of the most important transformations underway in the sector.
11. THE JOB MARKET IS CHANGING: THE “SUPER SALESMAN” IS NO LONGER ENOUGH
The professional skills required by companies are also changing.
The trade slowdown is increasing the demand for people capable not only of selling, but of building markets, managing distribution channels and developing international commercial strategies .
At the same time, the importance of hospitality skills is growing, because wine tourism isn't simply about selling a few bottles after a tasting.
It means building customer loyalty, reputation, and creating a direct relationship between consumer and brand.
For many wineries, the real need will therefore be to move from a predominantly productive culture to a more commercial and managerial culture.
12. WINE M&A: 1.45 BILLION IN TURNOVER POTENTIALLY IN MOVEMENT
Another significant signal concerns the ownership structures.
According to the information reported in the analyzed material, at least six-seven important Italian wine companies , which together represent a turnover of approximately 1.45 billion euros , could face significant changes in governance in the next 6-12 months.
Funds, industrial investors, new partners, mergers and acquisitions could therefore become increasingly present in the sector.
It's not just about finance.
Structural problems lie behind many operations: generational transitions, capital needs, export development, growth, insufficient sales networks, and the need for managerial skills.
For this reason , M&A and mergers can become one of the tools through which Italian wine faces the new market phase .
