This week's message is clear: the wine sector must produce more in line with demand and shift its focus from volumes to value creation.
This week's figure: 42.6 million hectoliters still in the cellar
The most important photograph comes from Cantina Italia , the ICQRF bulletin processed through the electronic registers.
As of July 31, 2026, there were 42.6 million hectolitres of wine in Italian wineries, to which were added approximately 3.1 million hectolitres of must and over 42,000 hectolitres of new wine still fermenting.
The most significant figure is the comparison with a year earlier: wine stocks are 6.9% higher than on 31 July 2025 .
This data was also confirmed by the findings published this week based on the latest ICQRF report.
Compared to June, the situation has improved, with a monthly reduction in inventories of 8.6%, but the annual comparison remains the real alarm bell.
In other words, cellars are emptying, but not fast enough .
And this is happening just as the 2026 harvest is gradually getting into full swing.
Where is the wine found?
55.9% of the stocks are concentrated in the Northern regions , with Veneto in a predominant position.
The composition of the stocks also shows the weight of certified productions:
Even more significant is the level of concentration: just 20 denominations out of the 523 registered represent 57.6% of the total stock of wines with Geographical Indication .
Prosecco DOC alone represents approximately 9.4% of stocks , with 3.2 million hectolitres.
They are followed by IGP Toscana and Puglia, Chianti DOCG, Montepulciano d'Abruzzo, Terre Siciliane IGP, Sicilia DOC, Salento IGP, Veneto IGP and Delle Venezie DOC.
The problem isn't having wine in the cellar. It's how quickly it goes.
Inventories, taken in isolation, do not necessarily indicate a crisis.
The problem arises when production, sales and inventory turnover rate are no longer balanced .
And this is precisely the point that the sector will have to question itself on in the coming months.
Exports: nearly 3 billion euros, but 2026 remains negative
The second signal comes from international markets.
In the first five months of 2026, Italy exported wine worth approximately 2.98 billion euros , registering a contraction of 6.86% compared to the same period in 2025 .
Volumes also decreased: 809.1 million litres , approximately 5% less than in the first five months of last year.
The issue becomes particularly delicate when looking at the three main Italian wine markets.
United States
They remain the first international market, with approximately 709 million euros , but the value of exports records a heavy:
-15.4%.
Volumes fall by 6%.
This means that we are not only losing bottles sold: the average value generated by the American market is also decreasing .
Germany
Second largest market in the world for Italian wine:
439.1 million euros , with a decrease of 8.2% .
Volumes decreased by 9.3%.
United Kingdom
Exports reached 278.5 million euros , down 6.5% , while volumes fell by 6.6%.
Not all markets, however, are going in the same direction.
Interesting signals are coming from:
China 18%
Brazil 15.2%
Russia 17.4%
while Canada remains essentially stable.
The message for wineries: diversification becomes essential
For many years, a significant portion of Italian exports relied on a few large markets.
2026 is showing how risky this addiction can become.
The United States will continue to be key, as will Germany and the United Kingdom.
But an international strategy built on three or four markets is no longer sufficient .
Asia, Latin America, Canada and other emerging markets must gradually enter companies' business planning.
Not to replace the United States, but to reduce dependence on a single market .
2026 Harvest: Italy Begins to Produce Less
With cellars still full of product, several areas have chosen to intervene before the arrival of the new harvest.
Tuscany, Piedmont, Veneto, Marche and Abruzzo, together with numerous Consortia, are adopting or evaluating yield reductions, storage and other forms of production containment .
The initiatives concern important denominations, from the Chianti system to Valpolicella, from Soave to the Piedmontese denominations up to the territories of Abruzzo and Marche.
The logic is simple:
If demand slows, continuing to increase supply risks further compressing prices and margins.
For years, a part of the sector has thought mainly in terms of production.
Today we need to reverse the reasoning:
We must not only ask ourselves how much we can produce, but how much the market is willing to buy and at what price.
The Puglia case: 5 million unsold hectoliters
The most delicate situation probably emerges from Puglia.
According to data reported by CIA Puglia based on Cantina Italia, there are at least 5 million hectolitres of unsold wine in regional cellars.
Even more significant: over 3 million hectolitres belong to the IGP and DOP categories .
We are therefore not faced with a problem limited to generic wines.
The pressure also affects production linked to denominations and territorial identity.
The excess availability is impacting the prices of grapes and wine, with consequences for the profitability of winemakers and wineries.
Among the proposals put forward, the following stand out:
Targeted crisis distillation, varietal reconversion, voluntary uprooting of less profitable vineyards, greater aggregation of supply, investments in irrigation, internationalization, and greater valorization of native grape varieties.
The Apulian case probably anticipates a theme destined to become national:
produce less where the market no longer absorbs and invest more where there is demand.
We need a national supply policy
The debate is now also reaching a political level.
Among the hypotheses put forward is that of managing new plant authorizations differently, favoring territories and denominations that demonstrate concrete growth potential.
At the same time, a more effective management of abandoned vineyards is proposed, encouraging their acquisition, uprooting, or reconversion.
This is a major change.
Because it means moving from a predominantly agricultural policy to a true industrial wine policy .
The vineyard area should not grow automatically.
It should grow where there is a market, positioning and economic prospects.
Not all vineyards create the same value
Another piece of news this week helps us understand how important it is to go beyond simple volume thinking.
The ranking drawn up by the American Association of Wine Economists , based on FADN-FSDN data from the European Commission for 2024, analyses the net added value generated per hectare of vineyard .
Champagne-Ardenne dominates with around 60,000 euros per hectare .
But immediately behind we find two Italian territories:
South Tyrol – approximately €32,100/ha
Aosta Valley – approximately €32,000/ha
Burgundy, Liguria, Luxembourg, Galicia and Piedmont follow.
The interesting aspect is not only the ranking.
It is the economic principle that emerges.
A hectare of vineyard is not only worth what it produces.
It's about how much value it can generate.
Then the following come into play:
It is also an important indication for those evaluating acquisitions of wineries and vineyards .
The real estate value of the land and the economic capacity of the company are two different things.
The great countertrend: wine tourism continues to grow
While consumption and exports are slowing, a wine-related sector continues to grow.
Wine tourism.
In 2026, it is estimated that around 18 million Italians will be involved in wine-related experiences , approximately 4.5 million more than in 2024 .
This data is confirmed by the report edited by Roberta Garibaldi: the growth concerns not only the number of visitors, but also the way the winery is experienced.
Wine tastings increased from 49% to 64% , while visits to wineries increased from 32% to 46% .
But perhaps the most interesting fact concerns what the visitor is looking for.
In 2026, the family-run winery becomes one of the most sought-after experiences.
The tourist wants to know who produces the wine.
He wants to hear a story.
He wants to see the vineyard.
He wants to understand the territory.
And he often wants to eat, stay and shop directly.
Wine is increasingly sold through experience
This could be one of the most important changes for the industry.
On average, consumers drink less wine, but seem to be willing to spend to experience wine .
The cellar is therefore no longer just a production site.
It can become simultaneously:
place of production, tourist destination, point of sale, restaurant, accommodation facility, cultural space and brand communication tool.
Food and wine tourism in the summer of 2026 will involve a total of around 25 million Italians , confirming how food, wine and the region are now an integral part of travel choices.
11/08/2026
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