Wine trends and performance in Italy Week 2–6 February 2026.

Exports: record behind us, adjustment underway

2024 closed with an all-time high in Italian exports of €8.1 billion (up 5.5%) . However, 2025 saw a slowdown: -2.2% in value and -1% in volume , with a global scenario in which volume growth no longer guarantees value. Dependence on mature markets, primarily the US, exposes the economy to systemic risks (tariffs, inflation, and declining purchasing power). Hence the growing focus on new geographies: Mercosur and India are no longer theoretical options but mandatory trajectories, even if the implementation timelines remain long.

Prices and margins: the unresolved issue

Wine is suffering from an increasingly evident disconnect between price and perceived value. In key markets, particularly the United Kingdom and the United States, production, logistics, and bureaucratic costs are squeezing the trade's profitability. The entry-level segment is shrinking, while the compression of margins is leading to reduced product assortments, lower investment, and job losses. Without a rethinking of business models, the "race for volume" risks turning into a systemic devaluation of the product.

US consumption: structural decline, Italy more resilient

In the United States—the world's largest market by value—wine consumption is declining for the fifth consecutive year ( -8.8% in volume in 2025 ). Italy is holding up better than its competitors ( -5.2% in volume, -3% in value ), thanks primarily to sparkling wines. According to the Italian Wine Union , Prosecco remains the true driver, while denominations like Chianti Classico and Brunello maintain a defensive position. The structural trend is clear: in the US, people are drinking less wine, but they are seeking recognizable, consistent products that can justify their price.

Prosecco vs. Champagne: A Historic Watershed

2025 marks a symbolic and substantial leap forward: the Prosecco system surpasses Champagne in terms of market dynamics. While Champagne production has fallen to 266 million bottles, Prosecco approaches 800 million , embodying a model of "accessible luxury." It's not just a question of numbers: it's a clash between two visions. On the one hand, defensive premiumization; on the other, the ability to interpret consumption, sociality, and immediacy. The market has chosen the latter.

Communication and the consumer: the real enabling factor

Wine isn't rejected: it's often poorly communicated. New generations are curious, but demand simpler language, immediate experiences, and authentic stories. The cultural and relational value of wine remains intact, but it needs to be revitalized with less self-referential communication and more connected to real life. In this sense, the new Italian institutional campaign on conscious consumption represents a significant political and cultural signal.

Overproduction and system under stress

The most critical data comes from the wineries: over 8 billion bottles in storage . This surplus fuels dumping, price pressures, and imbalances throughout the supply chain. The selection process has already begun: small, fragile producers, undercapitalized models, and confused positioning are at risk of being forced out of the market. This isn't a collapse, but a fracture. And like any fracture, it redraws the perimeter of the survivors.

Strategic conclusion

Italian wine is not in decline, but in transformation. Those who manage inventory, margins, and positioning are the winners; those who invest even in difficult times; those who build value before even selling volume. 2026 will not reward inertia or nostalgia. It will reward industrial vision, product line clarity, market presence, and the ability to speak to today's consumer. In an uncertain world, wine remains a powerful economic and cultural tool. Provided it is used wisely.