In the background, a structural theme emerges: fragmentation of denominations and, simultaneously, greater industrial concentration in certified volumes.
1) Bottling 2025: -2.1% overall, but the DOP range is growing
Valoritalia data (updated to December 31, 2025) indicates an overall decline of -2.1% compared to 2024 in certified bottling. However, the message is not a "collapse," but rather a stabilization : volumes remain higher than pre-Covid , and the contraction is considered limited .
Inside that -2.1% is the most interesting part:
Strategic reading: the market is rewarding identity, recognisability and positioning , penalising what is perceived as “interchangeable”.
2) The demand is changing: whites, rosés, and sparkling wines are ahead; reds are slowing down significantly.
The typological divide is now structural and will become even more evident in 2025:
What it really means: It's not just "trend." It's a shift in consumption (in Italy and around the world) toward fresher, less demanding wines , often more compatible with new drinking styles and a growing awareness of alcohol, lightness, and immediacy. Regions historically associated with full-bodied reds risk paying a double price: declining demand and stagnant inventory.
3) Micro-denominations: many acronyms, little critical mass (and more vulnerability)
The appellation breakdown by size is a key point this week. The micro-appellations (under 10,000 hl) are:
The dynamics by size range show that critical mass matters :
Diagnosis: Micro-DOs struggle to cope with market fluctuations, costs, and commercial complexity. Having a name isn't enough: you need a strong structure (a strong consortium, planning, promotion, and channels).
4) Production structure: hyper-fragmented at the base, concentrated at the top
The numbers confirm a sector made up of many small operators and very few large ones:
Implication: competition is no longer just "product vs. product," but increasingly an organized system vs. fragmented system . Small businesses must choose: either they become ultra-specialized and premium , or they merge (commercially or industrially).
5) The major industrial hub: stable production, but growing inventories
Here lies the “paradox” that is squeezing margins and financial serenity.
According to UIV, after two campaigns of just over 44 million hl, even these volumes are no longer sustainable if demand is not absorbed.
Where the surplus is concentrated:
Immediate effect on the market:
Brutal translation: more inventory = more idle capital = more pressure on prices and liquidity, especially for those operating in segments less protected by brands/names.
6) Exports and markets: relative stability, but the direction is still negative
The international picture remains complex. The aforementioned analyses (Nomisma Wine Monitor) report a 3% decline in the value of Italian exports , in a context where other competitors (Australia, Chile, France) are performing worse. It's a "victory on points," not a triumph.
On the US front and trade tensions, UIV reports:
At the same time, in the US alcohol market, wine is declining (-3.5%) , while ready-to-drink products are growing strongly (16.4%), i.e. simpler, cheaper and “immediate” to enjoy.
The underlying message: simply "being present" in traditional markets isn't enough. We need to reallocate our energies to third-party markets , trade agreements (Mercosur/India), and a more aggressive and continuous presence on the markets.
7) Data, control and planning: TESSA and the new reporting system for Consortia
An often underestimated but strategic point: data quality becomes a competitive lever.
Valoritalia is pushing the TESSA platform (developed with Microsoft) to process the movements of over 90,000 companies across 219 certified denominations , and is introducing monthly reporting for Consortia with indicators on:
Why it matters: in 2026, those who know how to plan (supply, yields, inventories, channels) will win, not those who "suffer" the market.
What this week really tells us (in one sentence)
Italian wine enters 2026 with a supply chain that relies on organised quality , but must face an industrial challenge that cannot be postponed: too many inventories compared to demand , with the need for production flexibility, organisational consolidation and commercial repositioning .
