Italy large-scale distribution sales report December 2022

Widespread declines, prices flare up in the 3rd quarter

As announced, the 2022 balance of large-scale retail sales closed in the negative both in terms of volumes (-6%, at 7.7 million hectoliters) and values (-2%, at 2.9 billion euros) . According to the analysis by the UIV-Ismea Wine Observatory, based on Ismea-NielsenIQ data, the inflationary surge recorded in the fourth quarter of the year (7% on average, of which 8% still wines and 5% sparkling wines) has on one hand helped to dampen the loss in value, but on the other - pushing the price lists to record levels (3.64 euro/litre on average for still wines and 7.42 for sparkling wines) - it ended up giving the coup de grace to the expectations of recovery of consumption at the end of the year. Even sparkling wines – except for Prosecco, which closed the last quarter with a zero balance compared to 2021, and dry Charmats (8%) – archive a Christmas at -3%, with Champagne at -30% (data also due to the shortage of product around the world).

Red wines, we have a problem

If – staying on sparkling wine – 2022, despite closing in negative overall, remained within the orbit of the record figures reached in the year of grace 2021 (1 million hectoliters against 880,000 in 2019, with Cagr at 5%, of which Prosecco at 9%), for still wines the music played moves on very different times: the -7% achieved in the year just ended brings the category back for the first time since the year of Covid below 7 million hectoliters of volume sold, with Negative Cagr of 3%, and peaks for red wines (-4%). A sign that the growth of bubbles has not been neutral at all, but has also taken place at the expense of traditional wine. The price to pay is probably due to the fact that sparkling wine has become (finally it will be said) a product for daily consumption and not just for parties.

E-commerce, is the fun over?

The negative balance with the heaviest volume can be found in e-commerce, with -15% cumulative between wines and sparkling wines (the latter at -13%) and higher peaks for the most valuable types, such as classic method sparkling wines ( -21%). The channel, unlike physical retail, experienced widespread negative signs on prices, with total sales at -10%, even if some product categories (especially sparkling wines, such as Prosecchi and classic method) followed an inflationary trend.

After experiencing a real sales boom in 2020 (from 2.6 to 8 million litres) and further growth in 2021 (9 million), the segment seems destined to settle down to the levels of the pandemic year, and therefore somehow interrupted the growth. The reduction in price lists in a hyperinflationary year seems to be the signal that huge stocks of unsold product remain in warehouses based on the mistaken belief that the market would have another expansive year.