At the same time, new growth opportunities, new commercial geographies, and new consumption models are emerging that are reshaping the future of Italian and global wine.
According to the Mediobanca 2025 Report on leading Italian wineries, the slowdown in the sector is now evident even among large groups. Aggregate sales of the companies analyzed fell 2.8% compared to 2024, with exports weaker than the domestic market. Margins are particularly deteriorating: EBITDA -4.2%, net profit -7.5%, a sign of a cost structure that is increasingly difficult to sustain in a context of declining consumption and strong competitive pressure. The HoReCa sector, wine shops, wine bars, online sales, and the mid-market are particularly affected. Sparkling wines are holding up better, while organic wines are slowing, and no-low-alcohol wines remain marginal.
The international situation confirms the difficulties. OIV data show a very difficult global outlook for 2025: global wine trade will lose approximately €34 billion, global consumption will fall to its lowest levels since 1957, and international trade volumes will fall below 95 million hectoliters. The United States, France, and China are leading the global slowdown in consumption, while Europe continues to reduce vineyard areas and production to adapt to a less expansive market than in the past.
The main problem for Italian wine remains exports to the United States. In the twelve months following the introduction of US tariffs, the sector lost approximately €340 million, with volumes at their lowest levels in the last ten years. The first two months of 2026 still saw Italian exports decline by 13.3%, although February showed less negative signs than January. The US remains the primary market, but the pressure of tariffs, a weak dollar, and reduced consumption continues to weigh heavily on Italian companies.
Within this challenging scenario, however, some new strategic directions are beginning to emerge. Russia, China, and especially Brazil are showing significant signs of recovery. The emerging markets analyzed by Nomisma are projected to exceed €400 million in Italian wine imports in 2025, with growth of 4.3%. Countries such as Poland, Romania, Mexico, India, and the Czech Republic are becoming increasingly attractive areas for commercial diversification of Italian wine, especially for sparkling wines and bottled wines.
On the consumption front, the shift now appears structural. The dominant paradigm is becoming "less quantity, more quality." Consumers aren't stopping drinking wine, but they're changing their approach: they're drinking less often, choosing better, seeking experiences, authenticity, and greater consistency between price and perceived value. Consumption by the glass is growing, now chosen by 57% of global consumers according to Coravin, driven primarily by young people seeking variety, moderation, and discovery. This phenomenon is profoundly changing the work of restaurants, wine bars, and wine shops.
Pricing is also becoming a key issue in the restaurant industry. Distributors and HORECA operators are sounding the alarm over excessive wine list price increases. Today's consumers compare prices, immediately perceive markups as overly aggressive, and tend to reduce out-of-home consumption when the quality-price ratio appears unbalanced. More and more restaurateurs are therefore considering more sustainable models, with lower markups and increased bottle rotation.
Meanwhile, production and marketing preferences are also changing. Liv-Ex data confirms impressive growth in the global fine wine market for white and sparkling wines: 650% for whites and 1,100% for sparkling wines since 2010, while reds remain essentially stagnant. This is an important signal because it reflects a real transformation in consumer tastes and international investor decisions.
Organic retail continues to grow in Italian distribution, with organic retail sales expected to reach €4.4 billion in 2025 (9.2%). However, organic wine has yet to fully capture this positive trend: organic wines and sparkling wines are stable in value (-0.1%) and declining in volume. This demonstrates that today's consumers seek sustainability, but also demand accessibility, simplicity, and a clear perceived value.
At the same time, the importance of technological innovation is growing. Eatable Adventures' Wine Tech Challenge highlights how the sector is increasingly investing in precision agriculture, artificial intelligence, water sustainability, distribution monitoring, dealcoholization, and commercial automation. Innovation is no longer an afterthought but a strategic competitive lever for reducing costs, improving sustainability, and adapting to new market scenarios.
Overall, the Italian wine industry is undergoing a momentous transformation. Global consumption is slowing, margins are compressing, and traditional markets are becoming more unstable. But at the same time, new opportunities are emerging related to alternative markets, experiential consumption, premiumization, technological innovation, sparkling wines, white wines, and the evolution of wine tourism.
The future of the sector does not seem to be oriented toward quantitative growth, but rather toward a more selective, managerial, and value-driven model. Those who can quickly adapt to changing consumer behavior, build direct relationships with the market, and offer authentic and sustainable experiences will have significant growth opportunities in the coming years.
