The sector is now at a turning point, where resilience is no longer enough: coordinated actions, systemic policies, and concrete diversification strategies are needed.
US tariffs: a concrete threat to the heart of Italian exports
The US-EU tariff agreement—which provides for a 15% cap on European wine imports —has been harshly criticized by producers and trade associations. According to the UIV Wine Observatory , the overall damage to the American wine industry, caused by a reduction in consumption induced by the tariffs, is estimated at $25 billion .
Italian wine, in particular, is expected to experience a 20% decline in consumer value , equal to $13.5 billion , in just one year. In this context, American producers and distributors will also suffer knock-on effects, due to rising retail prices and declining demand.
Prosecco in the balance: bottling boom, but exports remain feared.
Prosecco enjoyed a strong first half of the year (31% exports to the US), but recent weeks have seen a decline in orders and warning signs, especially for Asolo DOCG (77% of whose exports go to the US). Michele Noal, president of the Consortium, denounces the combined effect of tariffs and the devaluation of the dollar, while Conegliano Valdobbiadene DOCG fears for the sustainability of retail prices.
Meanwhile, bottling is booming (up 12.6% in June), and the 2024 record of 660 million bottles could be surpassed. But the question remains: who will buy all this wine if the U.S. market stalls?
Changing consumption patterns: red wines in crisis, young people drinking less
Domestic demand is also changing. Data reveals a progressive disaffection towards red wine , penalized by generational changes, health concerns, and more restrictive alcohol regulations. Approximately 50% of young people between 18 and 34 have reduced or eliminated their alcohol consumption. Wine, while still a symbol of Italian culture, is no longer as central to the daily diet as it once was.
Exports and production in difficulty: Europe in the red
According to the EU Commission, 2024/25 will end with:
Italy stands out as an exception (15% production), but it's not enough to offset the decline in France and Germany. Inventories remain high (157 million hectoliters), and Italian wine exports in the first four months of 2025 are down 2% compared to 2024.
Seeking new markets? Yes, but be realistic.
The sector looks to Mercosur (primarily Brazil) as an alternative to the American market. However, the area represents only 0.57% of Italian exports , with €46.7 million in 2024. The ratification of the EU-Mercosur agreement promises zero tariffs and protection of GIs, but the numbers confirm that it cannot replace the US , which generates over €1.9 billion in purchases annually.
Trust and reputation: Italy remains strong in the food and beverage sector
Positive data comes from the Edelman Trust Barometer 2025 : trust in the food and beverage sector in Italy has risen from 69 to 71 points , placing it among the most credible in the country, after tech and hospitality. But the new generations demand transparency, sustainability, and social responsibility . Only those who can capture these values will be able to maintain consensus and competitiveness.
In short: a sector under pressure, but with energy to relaunch
Italian wine is experiencing a systemic crisis , aggravated by US tariffs, declining consumption, and an unstable international context. However, there are levers for recovery :
The sector needs vision, shared strategies, and courageous decision-making. Italian wine still has much to say: but we need to know how to tell it, protect it, and bring it to the world with awareness and unity.
