The Italian Wine Union (UIV) is sending a clear message: producing too much wine risks plunging prices. Harvests exceeding 50 million hectoliters are unsustainable for a shrinking market. UIV President Lamberto Frescobaldi reiterated the need to stay within a maximum limit of 40-43 million hectoliters , otherwise stocks will inflate (up to 90 million hectoliters expected by October) and an estimated loss of approximately €500 million compared to 2024.
Minister Lollobrigida , however, puts a stop to the alarmism: “Enough with the depression.”
Production 2024: Italy still leads the world
According to Agea , in 2024 Italy produced 43.9 million hectoliters , from 728,000 hectares of vineyards , confirming its position as the world's leading producer . The PDO and PGI sector remains a flagship, with over 32 million hectoliters certified.
Alcohol-Dealtered Wine: Regulatory Changes Coming
A long-awaited breakthrough in dealcoholized wine: the joint Masaf-Mef decree that will unblock early production will be published by the summer. This segment, though still controversial, is considered strategic for opening up to new consumers and markets, despite the initial exclusion of DOC, DOCG, and IGT designations.
With exports declining and consumption slowing, wineries are demanding new markets.
The Mediobanca 2025 Report depicts a sector under pressure: 72% of companies fear a decline in consumption, and 66% fear tariffs, especially from the United States. To respond, the strategies identified are:
The average return on investment (ROI) for the sector is only 5.4% , lower than that of the food and beverage sector, with the EBIT margin expected to decline to 6.2% in 2023. Tuscan wineries lead the way in terms of operating margin (16.4%), while Abruzzo boasts the best ROI (7%).
Chinese tariffs: a new threat to European spirits
Since July 5, China has imposed a 32.2% tariff on EU wine and grape marc-based spirits. Federvini denounces this as "an unjustified and damaging barrier to international trade." Some producers have reached agreements with Beijing to avoid the tariffs, but most remain affected.
Sales down: all markets in difficulty
In the first five months of 2025:
Retail sales fell 3.4% overall, with still and sparkling wines down 5.3%. Only sparkling wines held firm (4.9%).
Crisis distillation? Piedmont says no.
Councilor Bongioanni rejects the idea of the extraordinary distillation requested by the Piedmontese consortia: "We need planning, not emergency measures." Debate on distillation, green harvesting, and yield reduction is also underway in Tuscany and Puglia .
USA: Wine overtaken by spirits
According to Shanken's Impact Databank, by the end of 2025, spirits will surpass wine in volume sales in the United States for the first time in nearly 50 years. Wine consumption will decline by 4% , but premium (over $15), dealcoholized wine, and "better-for-you" segments will grow.
Spain in crisis: -40 million in the first four months
Spain is also struggling: from January to April 2025, Iberian wine lost €40.8 million and 33.7 million liters . PDO Cava is collapsing, while generic sparkling wines are holding up. Germany is increasingly absent from key markets.
