1. USA: 15% tariffs on EU products, including wine
Starting August 7, a 15% US tariff on EU products, including wine, will take effect following President Donald Trump's executive order. The measure will especially penalize exports to the primary market for many Italian wines, such as Prosecco, which risks price increases of up to 20% on US shelves.
- Zero-for-zero hope : Negotiations are still ongoing to obtain an exemption for wine and spirits, but the EU Commission does not expect them to be included in the first package of exemptions.
- Breathing Window : Shipments shipped within 7 days and arriving in the US by October 5th will be exempt from the new tariffs.
- Domino effect : for Italian wine SMEs, the impact risks eroding margins and competitiveness, pushing associations to call for political interventions and compensatory funds.
2. Global market: rush for organic wine
Organic wine is expected to reach a global turnover of $21.48 billion by 2030 (10.4% annual growth).
- Growth drivers : health, sustainability and quality.
- Millennials and Gen X are driving the market, preferring pesticide-free wines with transparent supply chains.
- Emerging formats : boom in canned organic wine (14.2% annually), while organic red wine dominates with 61.9% of sales.
- European leadership : Europe held 77.5% of the market in 2024, but North America is growing at double-digit rates.
3. USA: declining exports and changing consumption
U.S. wine exports collapsed in June 2025 (-37% compared to June 2024), with peaks to Canada (-96.8%). The trade balance worsened, reaching -5.8 billion dollars in 2024.
In domestic consumption, still wine dominates (88.2% of the total) to the detriment of dessert wines, while sparkling wines and Champagne are gaining ground.
4. Italy: Government and supply chain comparison
On August 4th, the Wine Roundtable was held at Palazzo Chigi, with institutions and producers united to address the challenges of the sector:
- The 2025 harvest is expected to be of high quality, but with grape prices dropping by up to 30% and high inventories.
- Consumption is falling, even in restaurants, due to the health-conscious push.
- Structured strategies are needed: promotion in third-party markets, yield regulation, surplus management, and medium- to long-term interventions.
5. Boom in no-low alcohol: the new frontier
The no- and low-alcohol segment is expected to grow 7% annually in volume through 2028, with strong interest in the US, German, and UK markets.
- Younger consumers prefer lower-alcohol wines, also for green reasons.
- The Italian DOCs are moving: Prosecco, Pinot Grigio delle Venezie, Garda DOC, Orvieto, Nero d'Avola and Chianti DOCG are experimenting with light and low-alcohol versions.
- For Millennials and Gen Z, well-known brands and taste are decisive factors.
6. Prosecco case: immediate impact of tariffs
According to CIA Veneto , the 15% US tariff will translate into a price increase of up to 20% on the shelf. With exports to the US worth €500 million annually, the potential damage is significant.
Requests to the Government:
- extraordinary or EU compensatory funds,
- new targeted communication with CMO funds,
- anti-dumping strategies to safeguard margins and quality.
