Wine Trends in Italy Week 29 September – 3 October 2025

Executive summary

 

Strategic priorities: export diversification, selective premium repositioning, inventory management, anti-counterfeiting traceability, and a push for data-driven “family” wine tourism.

 

Exports first semester 2025 (source Nomisma: monitored markets)

• USA : leading market but pre-tariff "pre-stocking" halted → from 22% (Jan–Mar) to -7% (Apr–Jun) . Italy: 2.5% in the first half thanks to Q1. Court of Appeals decision on legitimacy of tariffs pending.
• Canada : 11% imports from Italy; strong substitution of US wines on the shelves ( –65% ).
• Germany : 10.3% in value (still and sparkling goods: 14.2% ).
• Japan and Brazil : positive performances.
• United Kingdom : –7% in value ; sparkling wines –6.6% , still/sparkling wines –8.1% .
• Others in decline : Switzerland, South Korea, Norway, China ( -10.5% for still/sparkling wines).
• Italian sparkling wines (12 markets): growth slowed to 1% value / 6% vol ; dynamic Japan, USA, China . Weak UK, France, Australia .

Production, inventory and structure

• Supply chain: 30,000 processing companies (1,800 industrial), 250,000 agricultural; turnover €16 billion (excluding related industries), 2024 exports €8.1 billion , 74,000 employees.
• Italy: world's leading producer (average 47 million hl ), leading exporter by volume ( >22 million hl ).
• Production volatility: peak 55 million hl (2018) ; minimum 38 million hl (2023) ; 2024 rising but below average; 2025 UIV estimate: 47.4 million hl ( 8% on 2024).
• Inventories : 2023 > production; July 2024: 40 million hl (–20% y/y with production –23%); 30 June 2025: 43.6 million hl (0.3% y/y; –6.4% on May), 2.7 million hl must and 63,926 hl new wine .
• Areas : Italy 728k ha (0.8%) ; national structural decline –15% (2000–2023) . EU27 3.2 million ha ; Spain 930k ha (–15%) , France 783k ha (–0.7%) ; China 753k ha (–0.4%) ; India growing 185k ha , CAGR 4.5% (from 2019) .

Prices, US tariffs and their impact

• Average export price (still in bottles): Italy €4.43/l , below France €7.81 , Australia €5.56 , New Zealand €5.86 .
• USA : worth ~ €2 billion (24% of Italy's export value). Average tariff 2.9% until Jan 2025 → 15% from Apr 2025 .
• Estimated UIV impact : €317 million (up to €460 million with a weaker USD). Final markup from origination: estimated from 123% to 186% .
• Apr 2025 : Italy → USA –7.5% vol / –9.2% val . Jun 2025 : Italy €169.8 m (–4.2% m/m vs Jun '24) ; France €191.3 million (5.9%) .
• Volume leadership confirmed: June 2025 Italy ~33 million liters (3.5%) = 32.6% of US imports; H1 2025 Italy 188.9 million liters (7.5%) > France (20.1% vol).

Focus Prosecco (UIV–Vinitaly / IWSR / SipSource)

• In the USA it is worth 31% of the value of Italian wine consumption ( $531 million in 2024 ).
• Awareness 40% (vs Champagne 52% ), but conversion to purchase 31% (Champagne 24% ).
• Sparkling wine share in the US (first 7 months of 2025): Prosecco 30% , Champagne 28% .
• Drivers: average price < $18 , strong penetration among women and Gen Z , use in mixology/RTD .
• Challenge: Growth in multi-ethnic communities (competitor: cocktails, hard seltzer, RTD).

Domestic demand and confidence (ISTAT, September 2025)

• Consumers : index from 96.2 → 96.8 ; economic climate 97.0 → 98.8 ; current 99.2 → 99.9 ; future 92.2 → 92.6 ; personal ≈96.0 .
• Businesses : 93.6 → 93.7 (stable); construction 101.3 → 101.5 , services 95.1 → 95.6 ; manufacturing stable 87.3 ; retail 102.7 → 101.6 .
• Wine implications: propensity for durable goods purchases slightly improved, but retail suffers; need to push by-the-glass , experiences, and entry-level pricing.

Ho.Re.Ca channel and distribution (Partesa interview)

• Excessive markups on entry-level labels are driving young people away.
• Virtuous model: wine by the glass with pouring technology, minimum quantities and continuity of supply, expansion of Italian labels.
• In 2025 price lists: avoid both drastic increases and decreases; focus on fresh whites and "pure" appellations with high quality/price ratios (Verdicchio, Garganega, Sangiovese, Chianti, Morellino).

Wine tourism and territorial branding

• International attraction for family-run wineries is growing: intention to visit on next trips → USA 78% , UK 74% , Germany 61% .
• Preference for family-run businesses : USA 68% , UK 57% , DE 49% ; very strong interest from Gen Z USA (82%) .
• Priorities: digital communication , multichannel promotion , AI to design experiences and manage flows. Key role: specialized consultant for omnichannel positioning and sales.

Policy, risks and operational proposals

• Safeguard Package (Eurispes): revision of Consolidated Law 238/2016 , yields/specifications/controls more in line with demand; labeling with ingredients and nutrition information ; simplification of inspections.
• Multi-level anti-counterfeiting : serial QR , RFID , NFC anti-tamper ; testing of new fiscal stamps started from 28 July 2025 .
• End-to-end AI : precision viticulture, winery (controlled fermentations, blends), marketing and CX.
• Plant authorizations : 1-year suspension of fines for non-use before January 2025; extension of replanting period to 8 years .
• Insurance/guarantees : evaluate an export coverage scheme similar to Cap Francexport; yield mutualization fund to stabilize prices (avoid sell-offs, dispose of surpluses, including through juice/distillation).
• US Tariffs : USWTA mobilizes industry with survey for economic evidence; leverage for negotiating pressure.
• Uprooting : German pan-European plan proposed (based on the 2009–2011 model); Italy more cautious → preference for reconversions and active vineyard management.

Opportunity to be seized immediately

1. Rebalance export portfolio : boost Canada, Germany, Japan, and Brazil ; monitor the UK and China with targeted plans.
2. Selective premium : communicating value (territory, sustainability, winemaking precision) to close the €-/l gap with the French.
3. Prosecco : defend US share (mixology, RTD, non-Caucasian communities, West & East North Central).
4. Family-friendly wine tourism : packages bookable online, transparent pricing, CRM and AI-driven UGC content.
5. Ho.Re.Ca : inclusive price lists, by-the-glass , menus under €20–25 for quality entry-level options.
6. Supply/Inventories : harvest-sales plans, cuvée segmentation, alternative channels for surpluses.
7. Trust & Anti-Fake : Progressive rollout of QR-RFID-NFC new tags; storytelling on product security.

Final route note

2025 is the year for "active selection": less product dispersion, more focus on markets and channels that boost margins and reputation, with Prosecco as the battering ram, wine tourism as the catalyst, and the digital/AI supply chain as the neural network. This is where the competitive advantage for the next 24 months will be built.