The slowdown is across all categories, with sparkling wines almost stable and bottled wines leading the decline. The US remains the primary import market, but 15% tariffs and a weak dollar are squeezing Italian producers' margins, which in many cases are absorbing the tariffs through price reductions. In Italy, inventories remain high (36 million hl as of September 30) and domestic demand is polarized: large-scale retail trade is slightly growing in value but declining in volume; out-of-home consumption is "less but better." UIV is supporting a financial promotion booster . On the financial front, banking and supply chain transactions confirm the credit focus on the sector.
Key numbers of the week
- World trade 1H 2025: value -2.3% (€16.7 billion) | volume -3.7% (€4.6 billion) | average price €0.06/L to €3.57/L.
- Categories:
- Bottled: €11.3 billion (-3.1%) , 2.3 billion L (-4.8%).
- Sparkling wines: €3.72 billion (-0.3%) , 479 million L (-0.4%).
- Bulk: €1.2 billion (-0.4%) , L1.6 billion (-2.4%).
- Bag-in-box: €345 million (-1%) , L175 million (-5.3%).
- Top importers by value (1H 2025): USA €3.2 billion (6.5%) ; UK €1.98 billion (-5.4%) ; Germany ~ €1.3 billion (6.9%) ; followed by Canada, Japan (4.3%, driven by sparkling wines 14.6%), the Netherlands, China, Switzerland (5.8%), Belgium (3.4%), Sweden (above France).
- Top importers by volume: Germany 647.9 million L (-1.1%) ; USA 645.4 million L (1.9%) ; UK 551.9 million L (-6.4%) ; Italy 129.2 million L (-28.5%) in imports.
- USA in 2025: 30.8% in January, 20.2% in February, 14.7% in March; then -1.5% in April, -16.8% in May, -3.1% in June in value (but 3.8% in volume).
- Russia: sharp drops in bottled wines (-37.1% in volume) and sparkling wines (-25.7% in value 1H 2025).
- Italy – stocks: 36 million hl of wine as of 09/30/2025 (-9.6% vs July; 1.3% vs September 2024) 8.5 million hl of must 4.6 million hl VNAIF.
- Italy – Large-scale retail trade (August 2025): €3.1 billion (0.6% value; -1.8% volume). Sparkling wines in large-scale retail trade: €784 million (1% value; 2.2% volume). Still DOP wines: -3.4% volume (stable value) ; IGP wines: -1.7% volume, 1.2% value.
- Out of home: 9 out of 10 Italians have frequented bars in the last three months; by 2026, 19% will reduce their outings, but 66% are aiming for higher-value experiences . No/low-alcohol niches are growing.
- US tariffs: estimated cost of €61 million for Italy in the first few months; average price of Italian wine in the US in July 2025: -13.5% , tariff absorption strategy (not sustainable for everyone).
- 2025 harvest: a qualitatively excellent and abundant vintage (~ 47.4 million hl , 8% vs. 2024; alternative estimates 44–45 million hl). Previous inventories of ~37 million hl to be disposed of.
- Finance & Supply Chain:
- Piccini 1882: €36 million financing (Intesa, MPS, CDP) for international expansion and AI.
- Terre Cevico–UniCredit: supply chain agreement for investments, exports, and ESG transition.
Strategic Reading (Italy)
- Margin compression on US exports
Absorbing the tariff supports volumes but pushes towards down-pricing and the risk of de-premiumization if not accompanied by more selective storytelling and trade-marketing.
- Polarized domestic demand
In large-scale retail, "value up, volume down"; in the out-of-home retail sector, selective premiumization . It's appropriate to push premium formats/labels and experiences (wine tourism, wine pairing, by the glass).
- High stocks, abundant harvest
Necessary disposal plan : portfolio management (blends, opportunity channels, technical distillation), focus on sparkling wines (more resilient segment) and non-US exports (Brazil, Mexico, selective Asia).
- Institutional promotion
The booster promoted by UIV and the Government must be translated into coordinated campaigns in the USA and promising markets, with clear KPIs (ROS trade, rotation speed, weighted distribution).
Recommended actions for Italian wineries (Q4 2025 → H1 2026)
- Protect the mix in the US: segment by country/retailer, favor channels with greater quality-price elasticity; review net price lists and promotions, avoiding linear discounts.
- Promote sparkling wines and premium experiential wines in large-scale retail and hospitality sectors: party bundles, special formats, and limited editions.
- Market diversification : focus on Brazil/Mexico ; ride sparkling wine trends in Japan ; and cautious tactics (slow rotations) in the UK .
- Inventories : Technical distillation plans and selective private labels to free up space without eroding brands.
- Domestic communication : support domestic demand with educational campaigns (moderation, quality, territory) and in-cellar experiences .
- Finance : Evaluate working capital instruments and credit insurance ; leverage banking partnerships for exports and ESG.
