The situation worsens further with the announcement of 30% duties starting from August 1st , a move defined by Uiv as “almost an embargo for 80% of Italian wine”.
According to UIV President Lamberto Frescobaldi , this measure puts hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk and requires an urgent change in strategy. Secretary General Paolo Castelletti warns that further saturation of European markets, caused by unsold stock, could depress domestic prices .
Key markets: US in the balance, East in decline
Cellars full: 43.6 million hectoliters stored
Inventories as of June 30, 2025, are equivalent to an entire harvest, up 0.3% compared to 2024. In June alone, the level of wine in the cellar decreased by 6.4%, but at a much slower pace.
55.7% of the wine in stock is Denomination of Origin (DOP) , with Prosecco DOC leading the way (3.76 million hl), followed by IGT Toscana and IGT Puglia. The regions with the most wine in the cellar are Veneto, Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna, Puglia, and Piedmont.
Sparkling wines are falling, but Prosecco is holding up
The sparkling wine sector recorded an overall decline in the first four months of 2025 (-1.1% in value), but Prosecco PDO grew by 1.5% in value and 3.4% in volume , confirming its role as the driving force of the sector. Prosecco represents over 76% of sparkling wine exports . It performed well in the USA (12.5%), and France also showed growth (15.6%). Russia is in crisis (-47%).
US tariffs: devastating impact and systemic risk
The 30% tariff Trump plans to impose starting August 1st will hit Italy hard, as it exports over €2 billion in wine to the US, equal to 24% of total exports . The most exposed wines:
Italian wines, especially in the "popular" segment (cellar price €4/liter, shelf price $13), account for 81% of volumes sold in the US . A tariff of this magnitude would put most of these products out of business , driving competition from Argentina, Chile, and Australia.
Declining sales and containment policies
With consumption declining and cellars full, many Consortia decide to cut production :
New markets? Opportunities in Canada
While the United States is closing in, Canada is opening up opportunities : 69% of consumers have stopped buying American products for political reasons. US wine exports to Canada dropped 97% in May 2025 , offering a strategic window for Italian wine.
Tuscany and Piedmont are evaluating uprooting and distillation
The hardest-hit regions are taking action: Tuscany is convening a technical panel, and Piedmont is starting monitoring for distillation. Many denominations are proposing moratoriums on new plantings , promotion on smaller markets, and the production of low-alcohol wines , in line with health trends.
Focus France: wine tourism as a competitive lever
France is investing heavily in wine tourism, generating €7 billion and creating 31,000 direct and indirect jobs. Italy remains the leader, with 13 million wine tourists expected in 2025 , but France aims to become Europe's leading wine tourism destination by 2030.
Conclusion:
The Italian wine sector is facing a systemic crisis , triggered by US tariffs and exacerbated by a structural decline in demand and excessive inventories. The resilience of Prosecco DOP , the production adjustments of the Consortia, and the opportunities in alternative markets like Canada represent the few positive signs in a context of great uncertainty. The challenge is to adapt quickly to avoid losing strategic market shares gained over years of growth.
