- Generation gap : In major markets, young people increasingly prefer beer and other beverages, with a growing negative perception towards alcohol.
- Climate change : Impacts production and consumption.
- Downturn in Europe and the USA : In France, for the second year in a row, beer has overtaken wine in preferences. In the United States, two-thirds of young people see moderate alcohol consumption as harmful to health.
Italian Bubbles on the Rise in the US
Despite the uncertain global context:
- 56% increase in September 2024 compared to the same month in 2023 , driven by Prosecco.
- Sparkling wines are the protagonists : In the period January-September, 86.9 million litres were exported (18% compared to 2023).
- Difficulties for still wines : Volumes growing marginally (0.7%) but still down compared to 2022 (-10%).
Alcohol-Free Wines: Innovation Opportunities
The "no-low" alcohol segment is emerging:
- Authorized Italian production : Thanks to EU Regulation 2021/2117 and the push of the Ministry of Agriculture.
- Perspectives : Large-scale distribution and consortia see dealcoholized wines as an opportunity to intercept new consumers.
Export and Sales: A Light Among the Shadows
- Positive 2024 exports : 5 billion euros exceeded in the first 8 months, with an increase of 4.7% in value and 3.2% in volume.
- Sparkling wines dominate : Growth in the Australian (11.2%), French (8.3%) and US (5.3%) markets.
- Difficulties in out-of-home channels : Weaker consumption for still wines, while only bubbles hold up.
Harvest 2024: Quality and Challenges
- European production estimated at 144 million hectolitres , down 3% on 2023 and 10% compared to the five-year average.
- Italy leader : 41 million hectolitres expected (7%), with a significant increase in the Centre (29.1%) and the South (15.6%).
- Persistent climate issues : Hailstorms and drought have impacted yields, but overall quality is expected to be high.
Where is the Wine Industry Going?
Wine struggles to remain competitive with other alcoholic beverages:
- Sparkling wines as a strong point : Growth expected at least until 2027, also thanks to their use in cocktails.
- Young generations and sustainability : Ethical values and social media play an increasing role in consumer choices.
- Future strategies : Consolidate traditional consumers, expand consumption occasions (such as aperitifs) and innovate to attract new generations.
Economic Challenges and Prospects
- High production costs : Packaging (47% for paper, 67% for glass) and inflation remain major obstacles.
- Uncertain future : International tensions and declining consumption require effective promotional strategies and attention to sustainability.
This analysis highlights an evolving sector, with sparkling wines and innovations as possible drivers of recovery, but marked by structural difficulties and changes in consumer behavior.
