Italy first, France second : Italy, with 41 million hectoliters, returns to being the world's leading producer (overcoming the very low volumes of 2023), while France, with an annual decline of 23% (36.9 million hectoliters), slips to second place. Spain is third, with a slight improvement compared to the previous year, but still far from the historical average.
- Climate and volatility : Extreme weather conditions (drought, hailstorms, floods) have penalized harvests, impacting all the main global production areas and confirming climate change as a key factor of instability in the sector.
Italian Export: Growth in Value Thanks to Sparkling Wines
- Over 8 billion euros : Nomisma Wine Monitor estimates for 2024 indicate Italian wine exports at 4.5% compared to 2023, exceeding the threshold of 8 billion euros.
- Sparkling wines take centre stage : Growth abroad is driven by sparkling wines, particularly Prosecco, which now represents 2 out of 10 Italian bottles sold abroad.
- Difficulties in traditional markets : While Germany, Switzerland, France and Norway show declines in Italian wine imports, new markets are emerging with double-digit growth such as Austria, Ireland, Brazil, Romania, Croatia and Thailand. This diversification has become strategic to compensate for the stagnation in historical markets.
Domestic Market: Inflation and Falling Volumes
- Consumption in decline : In 2024, the Italian large-scale retail trade recorded a decline in wine sales by volume of -1.5% in the first 9 months, after an already negative 2023. A slight recovery in the third quarter is not enough to bring the cumulative into positive territory.
- Consumer preferences : Italians, under pressure from the rising cost of living, are moving towards cheaper generic sparkling wines, penalising PDO bubbles and still wines. Spirits remain substantially stable in value, with a slight drop in volumes.
- Segmentation by type : PDO wines maintain their value but see volumes fall (-2.9%), while PGI wines grow slightly both in value (1.6%) and volume (3.7%). Sparkling wines show an increase in value (3.5%), with the classic method and dry Charmat (Prosecco in the lead) in the spotlight, while still and sparkling wines continue to lose ground, especially online.
Cellar Vision: Concern and Diversification
- Company Sentiment : According to a WineNews survey of 20 large companies (14% of the sector's turnover), 35% of wineries expect 2024 to be worse than 2023, 40% estimate stable results and only 25% expect growth.
- Tariff risk and geopolitical tensions : The US elections and the declarations of the new president Trump on possible tariffs represent a concrete threat, not only for exports overseas, but indirectly also for markets such as Germany, already under economic pressure. Furthermore, from 1 February 2025, the increase in excise duties on wines and spirits in the United Kingdom could further affect trade flows.
Changing Tastes and Future Opportunities
- Young people and health : The new generations reduce their wine consumption, preferring lighter alcoholic beverages or no/low alcohol alternatives. This trend reinforces the growth of sparkling wines and dealcoholized wines, and pushes companies to experiment with new proposals to intercept different palates.
- Strategies for the future : In a scenario of uncertainty, wine companies aim to:
- Diversification of foreign markets.
- Product innovation (bubbles, “no-low alcohol” segments).
- Strengthening the bond with the consumer, enhancing identity, sustainability and quality.
Conclusion
The overall picture of Italian wine at the end of 2024 is characterized by strong variability and complexity. While export growth supports the overall value of the sector, driven by sparkling wines and new emerging markets, the domestic market suffers, compressed by inflation and changes in consumption. World production at historic lows, political uncertainties and changing consumer preferences make it essential for the sector to develop flexible strategies, invest in innovative products and strengthen its presence in diversified markets. In this evolution, Italy maintains a primary role at a production and commercial level, but the challenge will be to know how to read and anticipate the change.
