The picture of the week
Italian wine is undergoing a transformation. After months of slowdown, bottling shows the first signs of stabilization, but the recovery remains uneven.
White and sparkling wines are holding up better, while reds continue to lose ground, and high inventories are increasing pressure on wineries. Internationally, exports and consumption are slowing, while markets like China are offering new opportunities for development.
The challenge isn't just about selling wine: it's becoming increasingly important to adapt production, product ranges, distribution, and positioning to new consumer habits.
The key numbers of the sector
Italian bottlings, January–September
-3.0%
9.86 million hectoliters – Valoritalia
Italian stocks, September 30
62.7 million hl
Wine, musts, and new wine in fermentation – ICQRF
World exports, first half of the year
-5.1%
Export Value – OIVE
Prosecco DOC in China, first semester
30%
Export growth on an annual basis
1. Italian market: signs of recovery, but not for everyone
According to Valoritalia, in the third quarter of 2026, bottlings decreased by only 0.3% compared to 2025, while September recorded growth of 4.9%.
In the first nine months of the year, 9.86 million hectolitres were bottled, a decrease of 3%.
The differences between categories are significant:
Bottling trend by type, January–September 2026
-10%-6.5%-3%0.5%4%Still WhitesSparkling WhitesReds
Percentage change over the same period in 2025. Source: Valoritalia.
The market is therefore increasingly placing a premium on freshness, versatility, and ease of consumption. It's essential for wineries to assess whether their product line still meets real demand.
Valoritalia data refers to denominations certified by the organization and does not automatically represent the entire national production.
2. Stocks: over 62 million hectoliters in Italian cellars
The ICQRF Cantina Italia report, updated to September 30, 2026, highlights overall availability of approximately 62.7 million hectoliters, divided as follows:
|
Typology |
Amount |
Annual variation |
|
Wine |
41 million hl |
14.2% |
|
Musts |
12.8 million hl |
50.5% |
|
New wine in fermentation |
8.9 million hl |
92.8% |
The three categories include products at different production stages and should not all be considered as wine already marketable.
Veneto accounts for 24.9% of national wine stocks. Among the denominations, Prosecco DOC accounts for 3.3 million hectoliters, followed by IGT Toscana with 1.4 million and IGT Puglia with 1.3 million.
56.8% of wine stocks are DOP and 25.3% IGP. Red wines predominate in both categories.
The main critical issue is the balance between production, inventories, and sales capacity. If inventories continue to grow without adequate commercial absorption, the risk of pressure on prices and companies' working capital will increase.
3. Piedmont: €1.5 million to reduce unsold wine
The Piedmont Region has earmarked a €1.5 million investment to facilitate the transformation of unsold DOC and DOCG wines from vintages up to 2025.
The contribution may reach 0.40 euros per liter, with eligible quantities ranging from 30,000 to 400,000 liters per beneficiary and a maximum of 160,000 euros.
The measure favors processing into products other than wine, such as vinegar, excluding distillation. The deadline for the call for proposals is November 30, 2026.
It is an intervention that aims to reduce stocks and offer companies an alternative outlet for part of the unsold product.
4. Large-scale distribution: possible cuts to assortments in 2027
The slowdown in sales is pushing some large-scale retailers to review their wine assortments.
According to Winemag, a major national group has informed suppliers that it will review its references and commercial collaborations during the 2027 negotiating campaign.
Among the most exposed products are structured red wines and labels with slower rotations.
For wineries that rely heavily on large-scale retail trade, the risk concerns not only sales volumes, but also shelf presence and bargaining power.
It is therefore important to diversify channels, strengthen commercial relationships, and evaluate the actual profitability of each product.
5. Prosecco DOC: China grows by over 30%
China still represents a limited market in terms of volumes, but it is interesting for the development of Prosecco DOC.
In the first half of 2026, exports to the country increased by over 30% compared to the same period in 2025. The Chinese market is estimated to be around one million bottles per year.
The Prosecco DOC Consortium organized two masterclasses in Beijing with over 100 university students, dedicated to the denomination, tasting, and Italian culture.
The initiative also involved Generation Z, invited to propose new forms of communication and consumption opportunities.
The most interesting fact is strategic: in emerging markets, it's not enough to export a bottle; you need to build awareness, recognition, and relationships with local consumers.
6. Global wine exports: volumes and turnover decline
According to Trade Data Monitor data processed by the Spanish organization OIVE, in the first half of 2026 international wine trade recorded:
Sparkling wines show greater stability, with a 0.5% increase in value and a slight 0.6% decrease in volume.
Italy remains the world's leading exporter in terms of quantity, with 986.4 million liters, but recorded a 6.2% drop in export value.
The slowdown is affecting many producing countries and is linked to weaker consumption, economic uncertainty, and international trade difficulties.
7. United States: More selective consumers and greater attention to prices
The American market remains fundamental for Italian wine, but it is changing rapidly.
According to SipSource, the wine and spirits sector has seen a 6.7% decrease in volume and a 5.8% decrease in revenue over the last twelve months.
Sales for home consumption are weaker than those for the restaurant channel.
In wine, the lower-priced segments continue to suffer, while products above $16 are showing greater resilience. The $20 to $29.99 segment saw a 0.9% increase in revenue.
Prosecco, Sauvignon Blanc, and Champagne are showing positive signs in some recent surveys.
For Italian producers, the American market remains strategic, but requires greater attention to price, distribution, positioning, and commercial continuity.
8. Identity of Italian wine: fewer imitations and more territory
Andrea Lonardi, Master of Wine and co-author with Jessica Dupuy of Italianity: The Culture of Italian Wine, draws attention to a key element for the future of the sector: the recognizability of Italian wine.
According to Lonardi, Italy must better valorize its own grape varieties, the diversity of its territories, and a winemaking style consistent with its own tradition, avoiding imitating international models.
Among the signature red grape varieties, he highlights Nebbiolo, Sangiovese, and Nerello Mascalese. Among the whites, he points to interesting prospects for Vermentino, Verdicchio, Grillo, Soave, and Friulano.
The message also applies to business management: to compete, better organized companies, commercial skills, and long-term strategies are needed.
Territorial identity can become a competitive advantage only when accompanied by consistent quality, sales potential, and brand recognition.
9. Wine and health: the debate on communication
During a visit to the Zorzettig winery in the Colli Orientali del Friuli, Minister Francesco Lollobrigida supported the need to strengthen the promotion of Italian wine, highlighting its culture and connection to the region.
He also drew attention to the changing consumer habits of young people and the opportunities offered by some Asian and African markets.
The debate concerns the way wine is described and perceived.
From a health perspective, it is important to distinguish the cultural valorization of wine from scientific evidence: alcohol consumption poses health risks, even at moderate levels, and cannot be presented as risk-free.
10. Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia: Quality and Adaptability According to Slow Wine 2027
The Slow Wine 2027 guide, scheduled for presentation on October 17 in Milan, captures a sector beset by commercial difficulties, rising costs, and climate change.
The anticipated editorial data highlights the importance of the North East:
|
Territory |
Wineries reviewed |
Labels |
|
Veneto |
161 |
523 |
|
Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Slovenian Primorska |
127 |
378 |
|
Total |
288 |
901 |
In Veneto, a trend is emerging toward fresher, more balanced wines, even in appellations traditionally associated with full-bodied products, such as Valpolicella.
Friuli-Venezia Giulia confirms its high average quality, supported by the identity of the Eastern Hills, Collio and Carso, despite extreme weather events and production difficulties.
The guide also notes a growing focus on sustainability, with 1,204 organic or biodynamic wineries and 3,005 wines packaged in bottles weighing no more than 450 grams.
These advance data will be confirmed with the official presentation of the guide.
11. France: wine is also a cultural heritage
A Deloitte study commissioned by Vin & Société analyzed the cultural value attributed by the French to their winemaking heritage.
The average declared willingness to pay to preserve it is equal to 94 euros per year per person, which rises to 123 euros for further enhancement initiatives.
70% of those interviewed associate wine with conviviality, while 53% consider it a cultural heritage to be promoted.
These are values estimated through a survey, not contributions actually paid.
The research highlights an important aspect for Italy as well: the value of wine depends not only on the bottles sold, but also on the landscape, history, tourism, and knowledge passed down.
12th OIV Congress in China: Innovation and Sustainability at the Center
From October 12 to 16, 2026, Yinchuan, in China's Ningxia Province, will host the 47th World Congress of Vine and Wine.
The event, organized within the OIV, includes 420 scientific contributions dedicated to research, innovation, and sustainability.
The choice of China demonstrates the growing international interest in a country that, in addition to representing a consumer market, is developing its own manufacturing identity.
For the global sector, it is becoming increasingly important to combine winemaking tradition, technological innovation, and adaptation to climate change.
