Cellars full: the problem is not production but the speed of sales
According to the ICQRF's Cantina Italia report, in February 2026, Italian cellars held approximately 58.6 million hectoliters of wine , in addition to 6 million hectoliters of must . Compared to 2025, stocks increased by 5.8% , confirming a trend that had already emerged in previous months.
This level of inventory is not due to a particularly abundant harvest: 2025 production stopped at around 44.3 million hectoliters , in line with the previous year. The real critical factor is therefore the slowdown in the rate at which wine is absorbed by the market .
The trend reflects a broader phenomenon: world consumption fell from 276 million hectoliters in 2019 to around 227 million in 2024 , signaling a structural shift in global demand.
Slower consumption and new consumer behaviors
In mature markets—Europe and North America—wine consumption is changing. Among the main factors are:
In the Horeca channel, data from the CDA consortium show a stable but changing market: in 2025, out-of-home beverage sales grew slightly in value (0.66%) , but fell in volume (-0.92%) .
The consumer mix is shifting toward categories perceived as lighter or more experiential. The following are growing:
Traditional evening consumption, on the other hand, tends to lose its centrality.
Exports: the slowdown in the United States weighs on the sector
International trade in Italian wine remains strong but shows signs of slowing.
In 2025, Italian exports closed at 7.7 billion euros , with a decrease of -3.7% compared to 2024 and approximately 300 million euros less .
The main cause is the decline in the US market, the primary commercial outlet for Italian wine. In the United States:
Several simultaneous factors were at play:
To keep prices competitive, many producers have absorbed part of the duties by reducing margins.
New markets and export geographies
The contraction of the United States is pushing Italian wine to seek new trade routes.
In 2025, the markets with the most dynamic signals are:
Despite these opportunities, many major global markets – China, Japan, the United Kingdom and Switzerland – still saw slowdowns in purchasing.
Strategies for managing surpluses
The issue of inventories brings the question of managing production potential back to the fore.
There are various tools available to the sector:
Many consortia, however, underline that the drop in consumption is no longer a temporary phenomenon but a structural trend .
Wine tourism and direct sales: levers of value
In this context, models that bring the producer closer to the consumer become increasingly relevant.
Wine tourism represents one of the most important levers: according to Roberta Garibaldi's report, for some Italian wineries the tourist experience can generate up to 60% of profits , while for approximately half of the companies it contributes up to 30%.
At the same time, interest in direct online sales (D2C) is growing. In the European market, this method can guarantee margins of up to 70% , compared to the 25–30% of traditional shelf sales.
A sector that needs to become more flexible
The debate currently raging in the wine world converges on one point: the production system must become more flexible.
In a global market characterized by geopolitical volatility, consumption fluctuations and cultural changes, the Italian wine sector will have to:
