1) 2025 budgets: more "balance" than growth, limited but widespread declines
Based on the evidence from the sample of wineries analyzed (high-profile businesses with an aggregate turnover exceeding 2.5 billion euros), 2025 will be a complex and adjustment year:
- 53% of companies: balanced budgets .
- Most of the remaining ones: drops in turnover mainly between -1% and -5% , with very few cases of slight growth.
- However, the sector is coming from a "high base": 2024 was a record year for exports (8.1 billion euros), after a series of favorable post-Covid years.
The key point is not just “how much” is lost, but how : many companies are defending the results with tactical choices (pricing, promotions, channel mix) and with tighter control of stock and sales network.
2) Italy vs. abroad: more stability at home, more volatility in exports
The gap between the domestic market and exports remains evident:
Italian market (domestic)
- 58% report stability.
- 26% report decline.
- 16% reports growth.
- The changes are often limited (in the order of 1–3 percentage points), but the signal is clear: there is no momentum , and growth is in the minority.
Export
- 42% stability.
- 37% drop (also significant, from -3% up to -15% ).
- 21% growth (typically 1% / 3% ).
In support, the data cited in the content confirm a “cold” 2025:
- Large-scale retail trade : -0.5% in value and -3.1% in volume.
- Export (first 11 months of 2025) : -3.6% in value and -2% in volume.
In short: Italy is holding up better , but not accelerating; exports are more unstable , and are affected by external shocks and shifts in demand.
3) Expectations 2026: operational realism, with a “small” hope of recovery
On 2026, sentiment is divided but remains oriented towards holding firm:
- 70% of companies expect stability or a recovery .
- 30% fear a further (slight) decline .
- In detail: some expect a year in line with 2025, some a drop of -3% / -5% , and some a growth typically of 2% / 4% (more of a “recovery” than a boom).
The most useful reading for decision makers is this: this is not a year of inertia . It's a year in which performance depends much more than before on:
- commercial speed,
- quality of channel management,
- price/pack/format management,
- ability to make the brand “understandable” and desirable.
4) Investments: stable communication, enhanced sales
An important (and very “field-based”) signal: despite the pressure on their accounts, companies are not massively cutting what they need to sell.
- Marketing & Communications : 79% expect a stable budget in 2026 compared to 2025; cuts exist but are not the norm (in some cases -5% to -20%).
- Sales support : no one plans to cut costs; 37% say they will invest more (an average of 5%, with peaks of 10%).
Translated: the industry is saying “ok, the market is tough, so let's push the marketing machine and protect the image”.
5) Consumption and "drinking culture": less automatic, more selective (Gen Z and beyond)
The change in consumption is not just a “decrease”: it is a change in grammar .
- People are drinking less in general, with similar trends in several countries.
- Generation Z isn't "disappearing": select . Drinking becomes:
- more occasional,
- more consistent with well-being and identity,
- more sensitive to authenticity, sustainability and transparency.
Growing interest in:
- sparkling wines , fresh whites , less demanding styles;
- low/no alcohol and lighter products, but without the illusion that they alone are enough to "save volumes".
The content also reveals a fractured perception: only 26% of the sample is investing (or will invest) in no-/low-alcohol products, while 74% aren't considering it (at least for now). This signals a divide in the industry between those who see it as a strategic option and those who fear it will be distorted or marginalized.
6) Price and catering: the problem is how you sell (not just what you sell)
In the Ho.Re.Ca. channel, the issue is not just "fewer customers", but receipts and price perception : the wine list becomes a minefield when consumer spending is more controlled and the psychological threshold is lowered.
In parallel, signs of adaptation are observed:
- return of more “accessible” formats (half bottles),
- greater sensitivity to promotions and commercial formulas,
- experiments on packaging/formats (a hot topic because it affects positioning and image).
A crucial game is being played here: transforming the wine list from a barrier to a lever , making it easier to choose (and easier to “move up the range” without feeling ripped off).
7) International: new geographies of attractiveness and trade shocks
Two messages emerge from the international picture:
- Intra-European focus growing : markets perceived as more "attractive" in the short term are Germany, the Netherlands, and Japan; the US drops in priority due to tariff uncertainty and volatility.
- Mercosur Opportunities : The provisional implementation of the EU-Mercosur agreement is seen as positive, especially with a focus on Brazil , where tariffs have historically been significant (up to 27% on still wines and 35% on sparkling wines). The operational idea is: the market is currently marginal, but it has growth potential if barriers are reduced and structured promotion is implemented.
Interesting contextual note on the content: Russia remains a market where Italy is the leading exporter, but with declines compared to 2024 (a trend consistent with a declining total import).
8) Fine wines: small niche, a signal not to be ignored
On the secondary market for fine wines (Liv-Ex), moderately positive signs are seen at the beginning of 2026:
- main indexes slightly up,
- Italy stands out with strong performances on some top labels.
This does not “save” the sector (it is a niche), but it indicates that:
- the brand and rarity value holds up ,
- the high-end can start moving again before the mainstream,
- The premium strategy remains valid, but must be supported by distribution, storytelling and consistent positioning.
9) Operational implications for Italian wineries (what does “now” mean)
The 2–6 March 2026 framework leads to a clear conclusion: it is not a cycle to wait for , it is a cycle to govern.
The priorities that implicitly emerge from the data and comments from the sector are:
- Defend margins before volumes : prices, discounts, promotions and formats must be managed as architecture (not as a reaction).
- Strengthening your sales network and “conversion” : increasing sales budgets are a sign of where 2026 will be won or lost.
- Simplify value for the consumer : clarity of range, style, consumption occasion, by-the-glass offering, pairings, formats.
- Reposition the offering toward more sought-after styles : whites, sparkling wines, and fresh wines; more selective and better-described reds.
- Open alternative markets with real plans : Germany/Northern Europe/Urban Asia; Brazil as a strategic option if supported.
- No/low alcohol: a strategic choice, not a fad : for some, it's a gateway; for others, it's inconsistent. In both cases, a clear, unambiguous decision is needed.
