Based on the data of the ANIE Rinnovabili association (FER Observatory) and the GreenVestingForum (Quaderno Energia, Economia e Società nro. 3) and on the economic and engineering models of EnergRed (Care & Share methodology), researchers Dorina Polinari and Giorgio Mottironi analyze in detail the current situation and the 2030 trend.
«In 2019 solar had broken all records of growth compared to the renewable sector itself, representing 62% of all installations. And it is also the one that suffered the least slowdown in 2020 . But, if you look at the PNIEC 2030 objectives, unfortunately it suffers from a great delay accumulated in previous years, a delay that mainly concerns the so-called "utility scale" plants for which it is more difficult to manage bureaucracy, but which also affects companies reluctant to change , where the culture of environmental sustainability is lacking » declares Giorgio Mottironi , who has now been appointed marketing manager of EnergRed.
Looking to the future, in order to achieve the objectives of the Energy and Climate Plan 2030 , Italy still has to install 40.7GW of capacity from renewable sources for the production of electricity. This is a titanic effort to reduce the sector's emissions and to support the continuous electrification of low or zero-emission consumption , for which it is necessary to double the current capacity .
But if sources such as hydroelectric and geothermal have practically exhausted their role, solar and wind are accumulating a great delay , having respectively reached just 41% and 56% of the target set by the plan.
"To re-align with the plan, solar will even have to grow by 14% per year for the next 10 years - including 2021 - which means quintupling the installed capacity every year , going from the current 620MWp recorded in 2020 to around 3GWp of annual installations » emphasize EnergRed analysts.
In 2020, the average size of the installations in the "commercial" segment (10-100kWp) was in fact about 28kWp, 49% lower than the arithmetic average , while in the "small industrial" one (100-500kWp) it was equal to 220kWp , 22% lower than the arithmetic mean.
A completely different story in the "industrial" segment (500kWp-1MWp) where the average size reached 800kWp in 2020, even slightly higher than the arithmetic average of 7%.
" Self-consumption in the" business "dimension is the first step towards the construction of energy communities , being able to often exploit larger spaces than the internal self-consumption needs, and thus allocating photovoltaic power to the neighboring territory" reminds us the CEO of EnergRed, Ing Moreno Scarchini .
"Considering that we must bring our per capita emissions to an average of 2.7ton / CO2 per year by 2050 and that Italy is now in a situation of 5.7tonCO2 per capita per year, we should install about 4 , 3kWp for every Italian citizen , or to install an additional 260GWp of photovoltaic power, 6 times the 2030 objectives of the Energy and Climate Plan, obviously taking care to shift consumption and therefore the various utilities on the electricity carrier, starting with private and public mobility " points out the engineer Paolo Cecchini , cto of EnergRed.
