Duties yes, duties no, duties at 10%: Trump “indicates” to Italy the new export markets for wine

A decision that weighs, considering that until a few days ago Italian wine entered the US market with practically zero duty: 1% for still wines, 3.5% for sparkling wines. With the new tax, the cost of access for Italian producers soars, while future scenarios remain uncertain and full of pitfalls.

A blow to exports, but also an opportunity

“Beyond what has been said many times and from many quarters during the days of Vinitaly, and although we cannot give up on the US market, looking at the 'glass half full' we can say that Trump is urging us to diversify our outlet markets more”, explains Denis Pantini, head of Agrifood and Wine Monitor at Nomisma.

According to the Nomisma-UniCredit report presented at Vinitaly, Italy is the European country most exposed to wine exports to the United States, with a share of 24%. Followed by France (20%), Australia (14%), Spain (11%) and Chile (10%). A level of commercial dependence that, in light of protectionist tensions, becomes a risk to be managed.

Diversifying to Resist: The New Horizons of Italian Wine

The message is clear: it is time to look beyond the Atlantic. Pantini underlines the urgency of planning diversification strategies, not only through the initiative of producers, but also thanks to the financial and promotional support of Italian and European institutions.

Among the markets to focus on, those of Eastern Europe are gaining ground, such as Romania, Poland and the Czech Republic, which are recording interesting growth rates for the consumption of Italian wine. But above all, the real "tigers" of the future seem to be the Asian ones: South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand, expanding economies where Made in Italy - also in wine - is perceived as synonymous with quality and exclusivity.

Latin American markets such as Mexico and Brazil should not be overlooked either, where the growth of the middle class and the growing interest in European food and wine culture offer significant margins for growth.

Italian wine between resilience and global vision

In the short term, the introduction of duties represents a complex challenge, especially for small and medium-sized Italian wineries that find a consolidated and profitable outlet in the USA. However, the reaction of the wine sector cannot be only defensive.

We need a strategy that combines the ability to adapt, innovation in communication and active presence in emerging markets. Italian wine is already a symbol of Made in Italy in the world, but to remain competitive in a constantly evolving global context, it will have to learn to speak many more languages – and not just figuratively.

Conclusion: Trump “provokes”, Italy responds

In a political-commercial paradox, Donald Trump's protectionist policy could prove, if well managed, to be a catalyst for a necessary evolution of Italian exports. If on the one hand it imposes a brake on one of the reference markets, on the other it pushes the wine sector to broaden its gaze, breaking habits and seeking new routes.

Perhaps, without wanting to, Trump has shown Italy the way to the future.